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As a man thinks, so he is. Some people are never.

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November 2009

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Turn off the nav system, crumple up that MapQuest printout, and let's find out where the next random turn may take us!

Nov 10, 2009 - Leading Indicator

AR Index     635.31  +27.34  (+4.50%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  79.12  +0.00
GM        0.58    +0.03
Ford      8.18   +0.60

Dow 10226.94  +437.50   (+4.47%)

I'm still slightly amazed that Ford really has been the driving force in the AR Index right from when I started to record things back in April 2008. There were many things I half-expected to see once enough data was recorded, but this really wasn't one of them.

I suppose the next big test for Ford will be whether they can weather the hissy fit the UAW just threw when they rejected the contract changes.

4:10 am | Categories: ar index, ford
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Nov 5, 2009 - That's MY Job

The image is from the Charlie Chaplin classic, "Modern Times", which follows the Little Tramp through his trials and tribulations at a factory.

I was reminded of the film while reading an interesting op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal about how Ford is making it comeback, and how the UAW is throwing a real monkey wrench into the works.

The real issue is the job classifications.

Ford's UAW contract has lots of them, governing who can and who can't perform specified tasks on the factory floor. So if a machine breaks down, an assembly line can come to a halt while everyone waits for the worker with the proper classification to arrive at the scene. If other workers nearby are perfectly capable of fixing the machine, well, that doesn't matter. The number of job classifications is less than it was a decade ago, but it's still far too many to maximize a factory's efficiency.

The classifications and attendant work rules are enforced by union bureaucracies—members of each plant's shop committee, grievance committee, health and safety committee, etc. They're all paid by the companies, as are their legions of corporate counterparts. One man's feather-bedding is another man's job.

All this begs a fundamental, and uncomfortable, question. Can a UAW-represented car company compete effectively, long term, with its nonunion competitors? At the very least, companies organized by the UAW have lots of extra costs to bear at their factories located in the U.S.

The UAW members at Ford may want it to still be the heydey of their power and influence, but they really need to catch up with modern times before they're left behind wondering what happened to their jobs.

Read the entire article at wsj.com

4:08 am | Categories: automotive news, ford, uaw
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Oct 30, 2009 - Let The Celebration Begin

Another historic UAW "victory" as workers at the Sterling Heights axle plant vote down the concessions Ford needs to stay competetive.

Under the terms of the agreement, Sterling Axle was supposed to get new rear-wheel drive work that would have added about 100 jobs. Now, union sources fear that work will be given to Getrag Corp., a German supplier with a nonunion factory in North Carolina. Local union leaders also were told Ford is considering outsourcing other components made at the plant, where 80 percent of workers voted against ratification.

"I don't think people here really understood that the work we had been promised was contingent on ratification," said Sterling Axle UAW member Brian Pannebecker, who voted in favor of the agreement and is now helping to organize a petition in support of revote.

Exactly what did you think was going to happen here guys? I'm hopeful in that there seem to be at least of few UAW members who realize that the choice is between "winning" and working.

Read the rest of the article at the Detroit News

3:05 am | Categories: automotive news, ford, uaw
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Oct 27, 2009 - Glory Daze

Daniel Howes' column in the Detroit News nails it in his opening paragraph.

Old Detroit lives!

Here, in the week before Ford Motor Co. hopes to maybe, sorta' report encouraging third-quarter earnings, a faction of its United Auto Workers membership is on course to torpedo a revised labor agreement -- proving, yet again, that bankruptcies and painful retrenchments aren't enough to shake some real-world sense into a deeply engrained sense of entitlement.

I'm not sure what thought process (if any) is going on in the heads of those union members leading this charge to derail the labor agreement, but they are sadly mistaken if they think the UAW is the power that it once was.

This all reminds me of an A&P  grocery store that we used to have here in town. The local union went on strike, demanding, among other things, ridiculously higher wages for grocery baggers. And they were not going to budge one inch off their position. The store informed them of the impossibility of their demands and that the store would close if some kind of deal couldn't be worked out. The union voted to not give in, the store closed and has been empty over 25 years. But hey, they stood their ground and faced down the company. Nice moral victory guys. I almost forgot... we're also getting along fine without the A&P, buying our groceries at the other stores that moved in to fill the void.

Even Ron Gettlefinger gets it. If the union drives the company into the ground, you can't stock the fridge with a moral victory.

Read the rest of Daniel Howes' at detnews.com

Meanwhile, in the real world... 

AR Index     601.28  -11.80  (-1.92%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  78.25  -2.06
GM        0.61    -0.03
Ford      7.47   -0.10

Dow 9867.96  -224.23   (-2.22%)

3:02 am | Categories: ar index, ford, uaw
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Oct 23, 2009 - Useful Idioms

I'm willing to bet that if you look up the etymology of the idiom, "cut off one's nose to spite one's face", you'll find references to the UAW.

Is it just me, or are we in challenging economic times, particularly in the auto industry? On October 13, Ford and the UAW reached a tentative agreement on a contract.

The deal, which runs until 2011, gives workers a bonus if they ratify the agreement and guarantees new vehicles for five assembly plants. But it also bans strikes over wages or benefits, freezes entry-level wages and changes work rules to require some skilled-trade employees to do more than one job.

Naturally, the rank and file thinks it's 1958 and business is booming, so they're not happy about it.

"People are very upset, and they let King know it," said Gary Walkowicz, a member of the bargaining committee at the Dearborn Truck Plant and a leader of dissidents at the Rouge. "We are urging everyone to vote down these concessions."

Just call them the noseless wonders.

Read more at MSNBC and The Detroit News

2:55 am | Categories: automotive news, ford, uaw
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Oct 20, 2009 - Driving Force?

 AR Index     613.08  +1.46  (+0.24%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  80.31  +1.38
GM        0.65    -0.05
Ford      7.57   -0.05

Dow 10092.19  +206.39   (+2.09%)

According to freep.com, Ford might show a 3rd quarter profit, if analysts at JP Morgan are correct. They say Ford is benefitting from an increase in Ford F-150 pickup sales, reduced incentive spending and a surge in sales sparked by the federal government's cash-for-clunkers program.

So while this seems to be good news, I think we have to wait for the Cash For Clunkers effect to wear off before we'll get a truer picture of how things are

2:50 am | Categories: ar index, automotive news, ford
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Oct 2, 2009 - Looking Ford Tough?

September sales figures for the auto manufacturers were not anything to write home about. The letdown after the "government crack" that was the Cash For Clunkers program has turned into withdrawal symptoms. (Gee, who saw that coming?)

U.S. sales fell 23%, and looking at the three componenets of the AR Index, GM was down 45%, Toyota down 13%, and Ford down just 5.1%

Think it's a coincidence that the only company of the three that was "saved" by the government is the only one that underperformed the industry as a whole, and not just by a fraction, but virtually doubling the decrease?

Ford is starting to look a lot like the little engine that could.

3:12 am | Categories: automotive news, ford
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Sep 10, 2009 - Vrooom

How about some news about a company that didn't take a bailout for a change?

Ford has unveiled a new diesel engine for its Super Duty pickups that it has been quietly developing for the past two years.

The new 6.7-liter Power Stroke V8 engine, code-named Scorpion, weighs about 160 pounds less than the outgoing model. The Super Duty's diesels had been supplied by Navistar since 1979.

Read more at freep.com

3:05 am | Categories: diesel, ford
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Jul 27, 2009 - Bring It Back?

Read an interesting piece in today's NY Daily News about a guy who uses his Model T as his every day driver.

He says he's getting 40 MPG and thinks Ford should put the Model T back in production.

"Everyone is scratching their heads, looking for an environmentally friendly means of transportation when the answer has been sitting right under our noses for over a century," he said. "They need to get this car back into production as soon as possible," he said. "If everyone drove the Model T, we would instantly decrease this country's oil demand by 50%."

OK, so that sounds screwy, but it does make you wonder. We all have had our favorite cars from our past that we'd love to have a chance to own new again. The big question is what would they do to the Model T to screw it up and make it "better", whether because of simple meddling or because of regulations.

Or could someone pull off new production retro cars?

3:18 am | Categories: automotive news, ford
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Jul 24, 2009 - Must Be Kismet

Yep, fate is the only thing that can explain it.

How else could Ford have turned a quarterly profit?

The funniest part is listening to "unbiased" news people trying to explain it away as some accounting trick because the fact that the only automaker not being "saved" by the government is the only one showing a profit makes the whole auto task force and bailout idea look like it was a total waste of money

Yea, Ford was just lucky.

2:47 am | Categories: commentary, ford
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