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As a man thinks, so he is. Some people are never.

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November 2009

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Turn off the nav system, crumple up that MapQuest printout, and let's find out where the next random turn may take us!

Nov 3, 2009 - Get Out And Vote!

How appropriate that on election we have a story about how the US Treasury is considering options for divesting itself of our stake in the auto industry. One of the options it is focuing on is on a series of public offering.

Taxpayers have sunk more than $50 billion in bailout and bankruptcy financing in GM and more than $14 billion in Chrysler this year.

About half of the debt was wiped out in bankruptcy at both companies.

The government received 9.85 percent equity in Chrysler, and 60.8 percent equity and $2.1 billion of preferred stock in GM, and $13.8 billion in debt obligations between the two companies.

Yep, that sure is an attractive IPO. I can't see anything wrong with this plan, can you? 

Read more at reuters.com

AR Index     607.97  +6.68  (+1.11%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  79.12  +0.87
GM        0.55    -0.07
Ford      7.58   +0.11

Dow 9789.44  -78.52   (-0.80%)

3:58 am | Categories: ar index, automotive news
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Oct 27, 2009 - Glory Daze

Daniel Howes' column in the Detroit News nails it in his opening paragraph.

Old Detroit lives!

Here, in the week before Ford Motor Co. hopes to maybe, sorta' report encouraging third-quarter earnings, a faction of its United Auto Workers membership is on course to torpedo a revised labor agreement -- proving, yet again, that bankruptcies and painful retrenchments aren't enough to shake some real-world sense into a deeply engrained sense of entitlement.

I'm not sure what thought process (if any) is going on in the heads of those union members leading this charge to derail the labor agreement, but they are sadly mistaken if they think the UAW is the power that it once was.

This all reminds me of an A&P  grocery store that we used to have here in town. The local union went on strike, demanding, among other things, ridiculously higher wages for grocery baggers. And they were not going to budge one inch off their position. The store informed them of the impossibility of their demands and that the store would close if some kind of deal couldn't be worked out. The union voted to not give in, the store closed and has been empty over 25 years. But hey, they stood their ground and faced down the company. Nice moral victory guys. I almost forgot... we're also getting along fine without the A&P, buying our groceries at the other stores that moved in to fill the void.

Even Ron Gettlefinger gets it. If the union drives the company into the ground, you can't stock the fridge with a moral victory.

Read the rest of Daniel Howes' at detnews.com

Meanwhile, in the real world... 

AR Index     601.28  -11.80  (-1.92%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  78.25  -2.06
GM        0.61    -0.03
Ford      7.47   -0.10

Dow 9867.96  -224.23   (-2.22%)

3:02 am | Categories: ar index, ford, uaw
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Oct 20, 2009 - Driving Force?

 AR Index     613.08  +1.46  (+0.24%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  80.31  +1.38
GM        0.65    -0.05
Ford      7.57   -0.05

Dow 10092.19  +206.39   (+2.09%)

According to freep.com, Ford might show a 3rd quarter profit, if analysts at JP Morgan are correct. They say Ford is benefitting from an increase in Ford F-150 pickup sales, reduced incentive spending and a surge in sales sparked by the federal government's cash-for-clunkers program.

So while this seems to be good news, I think we have to wait for the Cash For Clunkers effect to wear off before we'll get a truer picture of how things are

2:50 am | Categories: ar index, automotive news, ford
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Oct 13, 2009 - Right Direction

AR Index     611.62  +39.17  (+6.84%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  78.93  +3.86
GM        0.70    +0.06
Ford      7.62   +0.57

Dow 9885.80  +286.05   (+2.98%)

 The year-to-date chart is looking like things are moving in the right direction doesn't it? Not bad considering the anchor being dragged along that is GM.

2:46 am | Categories: ar index
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Oct 6, 2009 - Why They Won't Come Back

AR Index     572.45  -39.10  (-6.39%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  75.07  -5.56
GM        0.64    -0.07
Ford      7.05   -0.44

Dow 9599.75  -189.61   (-1.94%)

So you wonder why the "imports" (you can hardly call them that anymore) are so attractive to people? Check out "Saturn and Me: GM Loses a Customer" by Allan Sloan in the Washington Post. Once a customer loses trust in a brand, it's very difficult to get it back, and GM has managed to do that with so many customers who used to be loyal buyers that it's hard to envision them regaining even a shred of their former status in the automotive world.

2:57 am | Categories: ar index, gm
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Sep 29, 2009 - Surprises (Or Not)

AR Index     611.54  +21.94  (+3.72%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  80.63  -2.06
GM        0.71    -0.05
Ford      7.49   +0.66

Dow 9789.36  +10.50   (+0.11%)

First the "or not"... What a shock. They're talking about September auto sales being way down again. Did they really expect sales to continue at the flash-in-the-pan levels of Cash For Clunkers or that someone who bought a car in July was suddenly going to have the need to purchase another vehicle in September? At some point, car sales are going to have to stand on their own just like everything other widget that someone is trying to sell.

Now for the surprising... When I started the AR Index in April 2008, I never would have expected to come up with today's chart that seems to show that Ford is pretty much driving the direction of the Index.

Government "saves" GM, GM goes in the toilet. Ford doesn't take any bailout, they thrive. Hmm... imagine that!

2:59 am | Categories: ar index, automotive news
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Sep 22, 2009 - It's A Gas

AR Index     589.60  -26.43  (-4.29%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  82.69  -0.42
GM        0.76      0.00
Ford      6.83    -0.56

Dow 9778.86  +152.06   (+1.58%)

Another slight drop at the pump this week, although oil and gas prices pretty much seem to have disconnected from reality... which reminds me, Dub Schwartz informs me he's got a doozie of a reality disconnect story to relate to us on Saturday.

2:30 am | Categories: ar index
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Sep 8, 2009 - Ups N Downs

AR Index     620.92  -12.01  (-1.90%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  83.90  -1.29
GM        0.79    -0.01
Ford      7.43    -0.17

Dow 9441.27  -55.01   (-0.58%)

Just looking at positive/negative weeks for the Index in 2009 so far. Not a horrible looking chart even though it would be nice to see everything above the zero line, but as they say, you can't have everything... where would you keep it all??

2:51 am | Categories: ar index
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Sep 1, 2009 - Not That There's Any Formula

AR Index     632.92  +7.49  (+1.20%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  85.19  -0.56
GM        0.80    +0.05
Ford      7.60   +0.19

Dow 9496.28  -13.00   (-0.14%)

Like the title says, I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to the relationship between reality and the price of crude oil or gasoline. But the ratio of crude oil price to prices at the pump seems to be settling into about a 25 to 1 relationship. Not sure I'm ready to call it a trend since the commodity markets, especially in oil, don't seem to behave rationally a lot of the time, but there it is.

3:11 am | Categories: ar index
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Aug 25, 2009 - Year To Year

AR Index     625.43  +6.50  (+1.05%)

Stocks of individual interest
Toyota  85.75  +2.04
GM        0.75    -0.12
Ford      7.41   +0.04

Dow 9509.28  +373.94   (+4.09%)

Things continue to look up for the AR Index (despite dragging along GM) and I thought it would be interesting to use a chart of Ford's stock price for the Apr-Aug  period to show what a difference a year makes.

I really hope that Cash for Clunkers doesn't kill this momentum when the cars that would have sold in October don't because they were bought under C4C.

3:04 am | Categories: ar index
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