Hudson's Blog

Jan 14, 2008 - The Downside of Putting the World on Wheels

As countries develop, they all seem to go through similar stages. These stages may take progress quicker or slower, depending on the country and/or culture, but they all tend to follow a similar pattern. And part of this development encompasses their automotive industry.

Car companies are a sign of an economy's arrival. The US, France, Germany, and the UK all developed their automotive industries beginning in the late 1800s and other regional countries followed. As each economy develops around these car-related businesses, specific automotive needs are found and met. Trucks and buses and luxury cars are among the first. Later comes the car for the masses.

The US developed their first "people's car" as the 1901 Olds but it was the 1908 Ford Model T that really set the global standard for such a vehicle. It was simple and rugged and could carry a family (or livestock) as needed. And it was inexpensive..a key component for a "people's car."

France had their Citroen. England had the Austin Seven. Italy had the Fiat Topolino. Germany had the Volkswagen. Each developing nation brought their idea of the basic car to the market.

In the early 1980s, India started to bloom and basic transportation was needed there. Suzuki of Japan came to India and worked with the local firm Maruti Udyog to produce a knock-off of the Japanese market small car. Maruti's little car was wildly successful in India and 20 years later, about 7 out of 1,000 people in India had a car. While 0.7% of over a billion people is still a large number, a large untapped market still remained.

The global conglomerate made up of Renault and Nissan developed a little car through their Romanian subsidiary just a few years ago. The Dacia Logan introduced basic, reliable, and modern transportation to Eastern Europe in the early part of the 21st century. So well suited to the modern developing world was the Logan that it became an overnight success wherever it was introduced, including India. But the Logan was still priced high for the poorest of markets since the car was designed to be the €5,000 car; quite a bit of money in the Indian economy. 

Indian truck market Tata entered the car field in the 1990s with a compact car called the Indica. It was a luxury car compared to the basic Logan, but Tata had other plans. And after years of planning, Tata finally showed the fruits of their labors last week when the Tata Nano was shown to the public. And throngs of reporters rushed the stage at the car's introduction.

Why would such an extremely basic car with average looks engender such a reaction? Mainly because the Nano was designed to break the Rs 1,000,000 barrier...the equivalent of $2,500!

Nobody expects this little car to take over the world with its 33hp two-cylinder engine and lack of nearly every feature expected in the West. But it is the right car to take over the streets of India. For good and bad.

Global oil supplies are being tapped by all of these emerging automotive markets. China is experiencing amazing growth in car production and sales. India's growth may be slower, but it's still growing at an alarming rate. And adding a basic car, albeit one that gets 50mpg, will put added pressure on the global supply of oil.

It doesn't help that Americans are taxing the world's oil supply with (relatively) gas guzzling six- and eight-cylinder engines while much of the rest of the world is using four-cylinder gas and diesel engines as its primary source of power. It doesn't help when the American people see affordable gas prices as their RIGHT no matter how much they use. And it doesn't help that nobody is really doing anything to stop this demand for oil.

Sure, the next generation of the automotive industry will bring about alternative fuels, but we've been waiting for that to be "right around the corner" since the early 1970s. Car companies have been working on fuel cell vehicles since the 1960s and electric vehicles since before 1900, but we're not going to see these (or any other alternative fueled vehicles) anytime soon. Between necessary infrastructure change for fueling these vehicles that nobody's funding to a significant lack of desire by car and oil companies and government agencies to push these new technologies, we'll be lucky to see any of these new vehicles hitting mass market prices before oil prices reach $200 a barrel...or more.

I want to remove myself from the problem, but I can't afford to. My best move reduce my intake of oil as radically as possible. I hope to have my 100mpg moped available for my daily commute by spring time. On bad weather days and when the seasons change, I'll be back to my 25mpg sedan.

Part of me wants the people of India to enjoy the thrill of driving their own car. Part of me wants Tata to drop the whole Nano project right now to limit the number of potential drivers further eating away at the finite petroleum resources available. I'm torn.

But there are thousands of Indians, right now, anxious to get their hands on their first new car. Many of them ready to bring cash to a Tata dealer for a car that won't be availble until the fall. I'm happy for them...but sad for every car owner (and potential car owner) around the world.

6:00 am | Categories: automotive industry, oldsmobile, ford, model t, citroen, austin, fiat, seven, topolino, volkswagen, suzuki, maruti, tata, renault, nissan, dacia, logan, nano, oil, india Permalink | Alert Administrator

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