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My work has appeared in a number of major publications either as writer, photographer, or source. I enjoy talking about all things automotive. Recent Posts
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CarSpace Hudson's BlogAll around the car world there are stories and these are just a few of them. A new blog is posted every Monday. Sometimes more often. Jan 7, 2008 - CAFE and Your Car ChoiceIn a previous life, people relied on me to keep them abreast of the goings-on in the automotive world. My current life makes knowing the restoration market a little more important than the global production of cars and trucks, but that doesn't mean I've stopped paying attention. All the buzz in the American automotive industry today, aside from "when is the market coming back," is about CAFE. CAFE stands for Corporate Average Fuel Economy. It's the basis for improving the fuel economy of vehicles sold in the US and has been for well over 30 years. The fuel economy of each manufacturers fleet of vehicles sold in the United States is averaged together, weighted by the number of vehicles sold, to generate a CAFE number. Currently, up to three CAFE numbers are generated per manufacturer: domestic car, imported car, and light-truck. The idea is that each manufacturer would be required to sell more fuel efficient vehicles to keep their CAFE number above a set level or else face a stiff penalty. The CAFE levels peaked in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the car number set at 27.5 and the light-truck number set around 23.5. (Please understand that the CAFE number is not the number, city or highway, found on the EPA sticker on every new car. Rather it's the "combined" number formulated way back when before the gas mileage rating system was revised...twice.) In reality, CAFE has done very little to help improve the economy of the American fleet. Since the mid 1970s, the advent of fuel injection and other technologies have made engines smaller, more powerful, and more fuel efficient so the manufacturers have been able to keep up with the rising CAFE (which was slowed because manufacturers petitioned the government in the mid-1980s). By 1990, the average fleet fuel economy in the US was TWICE what it was only 15 years earlier. But fuel prices didn't rise as expected in the 1980s and early 1990s. Demand for larger, more fuel hungry vehicles rose but since CAFE didn't allow for the supply of large cars to meet the demand, manufacturers turned to trucks. And the SUV market bloomed! From just a couple hundred thousand vehicles in the early 1980s, the SUV market in the US peaked at about 2 million vehicles a year in the early part of this decade. Car production made up less than half of all vehicles built in North America just a few years ago, mostly due to CAFE regulations. Another "benefit" of CAFE was to be the added domestic production of small cars. General Motors tied up with Toyota to produce some small models in California. But Ford, on the other hand, moved production of the large Ford Crown Victoria and Mercury Grand Marquis to Canada (later NAFTA would make Canadian vehicles "domestic" in CAFE formulas). The whole concept was to get more fuel efficient vehicles on American roads. Bob Lutz, former Vice Chairman of Chrysler and current Vice Chairman of GM (and a real "car guy"), described CAFE as being akin to getting everyone to lose weight by requiring clothing manufacturers to produce smaller clothes. And now CAFE is potentially on the rise again. How will vehicles change with the rise of CAFE from 27.5 to 35? How will truck sales change with an increase there? Whatever will capitalistic Americans do without gas guzzlers? We'll be just fine. Cars today are much smaller on the outside than they were before CAFE, but have much the same interior space. Cars today have more power, far better fuel economy, are much more reliable and dependable, pollute far less and are safer. All of this, and cars are just as affordable as ever. I expect the same in the next 15 years. And I don't expect gasoline to fall from its perch as the number one fuel for personal transportation. I, personally, am looking for a commuter car that doesn't tie me to oil companies. When oil companies get government assistance and generate record profits, I can't imagine why gas prices jump every few days. Are they at risk of losing money because a barrel of oil went up a few cents? Why should I continue to fuel (pun intended) their record profits? And why should ANYONE worry about CAFE do any harm to the car as we know it? The first 30 years of CAFE didn't hurt the car...or the oil companies. I'll keep my gas-consuming cars for fun, but I'm in the market for a good, used Standard-Vanguard Citicar electric for my daily commute. If you've got one sitting around, I'd sure like to talk to you, but it seems like many people have the same idea as me. Have you seen the price of a Citicar on eBay? As Economics professors taught me....supply and demand!
Oct 1, 2007 - The Ultimate Car Dream...Part DeuxA few weeks ago, I wrote about my dream of manufacturing cars. With this long-held dream and my work with and around automakers, I've become very skeptical whenever someone announces that they're going to introduce a new brand of cars or trucks. The first thing to do is poke holes in their plans with basic reasoning. I do not get my kicks out of deflating the dreams of others, especially when I share the same dream. I do, however, get some enjoyment out of deflating gas bags...people who talk a good bit but have little or nothing to back it up. As a fan of "orphans and oddballs" (see earlier blog on the subject), I want these guys to succeed. I would have loved to see Tucker or Bricklin or Delorean or any of a few DOZEN automakers make a second or third or fourth generation of their ideas. But it is a very difficult market. Delorean was the big success here with about 9,200 DMC-12s built. Bricklin produced 2,854 SV-1s by September 1975. And many people know about the 51 mostly hand-assembled Tucker 48s built before the plant was closed. The men behind all three of these cars, Preston Tucker, Malcolm Bricklin, and John Delorean, said they would build a successful car even after their first attempts ended in bankruptcy. Tucker and Delorean died before they could accomplish this goal but Bricklin is still trying. It's a tough dream to overcome. And to many, it seems like an attainable dream. I wish it were that easy. The latest in a long line of dreams is Carbon Motors. In the early days of the American automobile industry, there were companies that produced nothing but commercial cars. Companies like Yellow and Checker produced vehicles almost exclusively for the taxi industry. There have been brands of cars produced exclusively for rental fleets. But Carbon claims that they want to produce dedicated police cars. It's a great idea. The police forces in the US have been very limited in the vehicles they could operate. When Chrysler stopped making rear-wheel drive, V8-powered sedans in the late 1980s, the choice was down to the Chevrolet Caprice and the Ford Crown Victoria. And Ford was the last one when the Caprice ended production in late 1996. Dodge re-entered the field recently with a modern sedan but Ford's offering can trace its production back to the Jimmy Carter administration (and engineering work dates back to the Nixon era). When the most popular product in the field has seen three two-term presidents (and two one-term presidents), there's either a great product on the market or there's little-to-no money in the market. But still others see this as an opportunity. Enter Carbon Motors. The Carbon E7 looks like something created for a movie set. Angular lines and suicide doors along with integrated brush guards give this car the look of a futuristic prop from the movie "Demolition Man." It seems like the modern interpretation of what a police car should be. But then the skeptic in me wakes up. Who are these people behind Carbon Motors? What experience do they have and why would they attempt to launch a car company? It didn't take a full scan of the officers to get my answers. William Santana Li is the man in charge of Carbon Motors. He has experience at senior levels of Ford, which is a plus. But on the negative side was the mention of his previous venture, Build-To-Order (BTO). BTO planned to revamp the automotive industry. Vehicles would be...wait for it....built to order. These vehicles would be produced in such volume that prices would be in the near-luxury range. It seemed nice on the surface, but the business plan lacked any appeal to investors. Even BTO's claim that they would re-launch a famous American car brand, rumored to be Auburn, wasn't enough to light the investment community's fire. And BTO quietly faded into the scenery. So now from BTO's ashes rises the Phoenix of Carbon Motors. A few hundred million dollars invested in the E7 could get it on the road. And assuming that Carbon can get a 300hp turbodiesel certified in a mass produced sedan...and assuming that 50,000 are ordered by police forces across the country each year from a no-name company...then I'd bet they can be a success. But do you think that Carbon can do put all of this together and sell the cars for about $25,000 each and make over $1,000 per vehicle? I do not. I know that my opinion about a car that has yet to be produced has little bearing on your opinion. So I'll give you a few reasons why this car, as shown on the company's own website, will not go into production as is. First, there's the powertrain that has not been certified for light-duty use by any company so Carbon Motors must complete the certification,which is very expensive. Second, there's the suicide doors that BMW claims to have an exclusive waiver on for its Rolls-Royce. Third, the brush guards will not pass federal regulations for bumpers which require that the bumper withstand a 2.5 mph crash with no damage to the vehicle. And this is all assuming that the vehicle is based on the Chrysler LX platform (Chrysler 300/Dodge Charger) and can pass standard crash tests. Good luck to you, Carbon Motors. My money's betting on no cars being produced to the specs (or even close) outlined on the Carbon Motors press release. If only Las Vegas would take my bet...and give me odds. I've got to figure that even the bookmakers can see the ultimate fate of this venture. Can't you?
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